Prediction Markets · Tool Face-Off

Kalshi vs PredictIt

Quick answer

Kalshi is the regulated, professionally-built prediction market for serious traders; PredictIt is the scrappier political-bet playground that built the cult following. Kalshi wins on breadth and legitimacy, PredictIt wins on political obsessives' hearts.

Our pick

Kalshi

The first CFTC-regulated prediction market in the US

4.1★

PredictIt

Political prediction markets with a passionate retail crowd

2.9★

Regulatory Status

CFTC-designated contract market (DCM) — fully legal nationwide

Operated under a CFTC no-action letter; faced revocation threat in 2022

Market Categories

Politics, economics, weather, crypto, Fed rates, entertainment, and more

Almost exclusively US & international politics

Trading Fee

~7% fee on profits

10% fee on profits + 5% withdrawal fee

Withdrawal Fee

None

5% on all withdrawals

Max Position per Market

No hard per-market cap (account-level limits apply)

$850 per contract (per market question)

Account Minimum

$1 to start trading

$10 minimum deposit

Mobile App

Polished iOS & Android app

Mobile-responsive web only; no dedicated app

US Availability

All 50 US states

Most states; some restrictions apply

Political Market Depth

Good but growing; community smaller than PredictIt's

Deep, highly liquid political contracts with devoted user base

API / Data Access

Public REST API available

Public data API available (popular with researchers)

Payout Currency

USD, direct bank transfer or debit card

USD via bank transfer or PayPal

Market Creation

Kalshi-created markets only (no user-submitted)

Kalshi-style curated; community can suggest markets

Kalshi

Liquidity★★★½☆

Ease of Use★★★★☆

Payout Speed★★★★½

Fees & Pricing★★★½☆

Market Variety★★★★½

Regulatory Trust★★★★★

Mobile Experience★★★★☆

PredictIt

Liquidity★★★½☆

Ease of Use★★★½☆

Payout Speed★★★☆☆

Fees & Pricing★★½☆☆

Market Variety★★½☆☆

Regulatory Trust★★★☆☆

Mobile Experience★★½☆☆

Worth knowing

Kalshi spent years in regulatory limbo before becoming the first CFTC-approved prediction market in US history in 2020.
PredictIt's $850 position cap was designed to keep it 'small-scale' enough to satisfy its no-action letter — it's a regulatory artifact, not a design choice.
Kalshi's combined profit fee (~7%) is meaningfully cheaper than PredictIt's double-dip of 10% profit fee + 5% withdrawal fee.
PredictIt's user base skews heavily toward political junkies and academic researchers — its data has been cited in dozens of peer-reviewed papers.
Kalshi has expanded into non-political events like hurricane landfalls, Fed rate decisions, and box office results — PredictIt has none of these.

PredictIt's $850 bet cap means a whale trying to go all-in on a presidential election has to open roughly 1,200 separate contracts to match what they'd do in a single Kalshi trade. Tedious democracy.

If you want

You want to trade on anything beyond politics

Kalshi covers economics, weather, crypto, and entertainment — PredictIt is basically a one-topic shop.

→ Pick Kalshi

If you want

You live and breathe US political elections

PredictIt has deeper political liquidity and a passionate community that makes contract prices sharp and active.

→ Pick PredictIt

If you want

You hate fees eating your winnings

Kalshi's ~7% profit fee with no withdrawal tax beats PredictIt's 10% + 5% combo easily.

→ Pick Kalshi

If you want

You're a researcher studying crowd forecasting

PredictIt's long data history and academic-friendly API have made it the go-to dataset for forecasting research.

→ Pick PredictIt

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Kalshi vs PredictIt

Kalshi

PredictIt

Worth knowing

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